Supposing Labour lose the next general election ?

[Dugsie]

It is possible, whatever you may think about its desirability. What contingency plans should the Left, including the Labour Left, formulate in preparation for a possible Tory victory at the next general election ?

[Brian]

The left certainly should have quiet contingency plans for this!

It seems as though new Labour is actually going out of it's way to ensure that Labour is trounced at the next election.

We have been faced by cock-up followed by scandal followed by bigger cock-up ,and that is just in Brown's tenure, without the war on top of it all!

yours,

Brian

[Strategist]

Dugsie, my opinion - on which I would welcome feedback - as follows:

The basic error we must avoid (which you seem to make, no doubt to delight of the evil ranks of New Labour's spinners) is to imagine that an election result leading to the New Labour absolute majority in the House of Commons falling below zero would lead to a "Tory victory" or Tory absolute majority of one.  2009 won't be 1951, 1970 or 1979 (the last three times Labour Govts went out of power). 

A Tory absolute majority would require a massive landslide for Cameron and is very improbable.  The most likely results at the next election are New Labour clinging on or a hung parliament.    New Labour clinging on to power is a desperate prospect for any progressive.  A hung parliament, by contrast, is (sadly) the only hope we have for a decent shake up of the utterly moribund, corrupt and anti-democratic system we currently have.

So our objective should be to strengthen left and green participation in a big public campaign for electoral reform as soon as possible.  We should actively target and campaign for a hung parliament at the next election - by working to encourage pro-electoral reform tactical voting to defeat pro-war pro-FPTP New Labour MPs in local target seats wherever we live, and working to get one or two Respect MPs and one or two Green MPs elected in the handful of seats nationwide where this is a real possibility.  Then we hope and pray that our crazy electoral system throws up an arithmetic where Caroline Lucas MP holds the balance of power!

The Left within Labour should get its weight behind electoral reform and get ready for a post-election scenario of either regaining some real influence within the party or getting out and joining a new post-electoral reform left party which should be good for 10% or so of the popular vote in PR elections.



 

[Dugsie]

Yes, of course, a hung parliament is a possibility and I support STV, in particular. If this happens then the choice for Labour Party socialists will be to go for a new political formation or continue to oppose New Labour from within the Labour Party. We will need to take into account the electoral system which becomes operational within the new parliament. It may not change, obviously. In which case Labour will probably remain on of the two major parties and we will need to continue to take account of this, one way or the other.

Should we just wait to see what happens or formulate plans for every possible contingency ? How can we continue to oppose New Labour within the party, those of us who are, when it is becoming increasingly difficult to get Left candidates adopted ?

[Strategist]

"Should we just wait to see what happens or formulate plans for every possible contingency?"

My view is we should actively work to make it happen - we need a much more active & high profile left participation in campaigns for electoral reform.  Regarding the Left within Labour, the Clare Short position is (or was a year ago, don't know if she has changed her view recently) that campaigning to make meaningful electoral reform Labour Party policy is a lost cause, better to get out and campaign actively in the wider world for it and the hung parliament which might deliver it. Others "hanging in there" in Labour obviously take a different view, but they need to speak up louder for electoral reform and in particular, persuade the last of the left pro-FPTP Bennites that the world has moved on and so should they.  So that is Plan A, and we should intend to succeed.  Obviously a Plan B in case we don't would be prudent, though I wouldn't like it to dvert energy from Plan A.

"How can we continue to oppose New Labour within the party?"

My own view is that people like Compass and LRC need to formulate some policies (or at least "red lines" on policy beyond which they won't retreat) for which they can assemble 33 Labour backbench MPs (or whatever the number is that beats the Government's Commons majority.  Then look to beat the Govt on those issues.  The right to habeas corpus/defeating 44 days arrest without charge is obviously one issue.  ID cards & Council housing finance another.  I think they should branch out a bit and put in red lines about, for example, NHS privatisation, PFI & other looting of the public sector by private sector vultures, Lockheed running the 2011 census, getting out of Iraq & Afghanistan. 

My ideal would be for the Left within Labour to really put some work in on getting Blair indicted and ultimately brought before the war crimes tribunal at The Hague for starting the Iraq War.  The total lack of interest or action on Blair's paramount war crime by 99% of Labour Party members was the reason I left the party, and for me at least, only action on this issue could ever redeem the party and make it a political home I could stomach again.

[Dugsie]

I am eccentric enough to be a member of both the LRC and Compass, on the grounds that the Labour Left needs to form a broad alliance. My politics is mainly that of the LRC, but I think that their focus is currently too narrow. Compass will need make their mind up shortly as to whether or not to finally abandon all hope in Brownite New Labour. It was, of course, absurd to have any such hope in the first place.

There is no good case for socialists to remain in the Labour Party, but there is a bad one. As long as the Labour Party exists under FPTP, its reality must be taken account of, in some way.

The case for socialists being outside the Labour Party is obscure in the extreme. I have discussed it many times with a wide selection of the extra-Labour Party Left. So they don't want to be in the Labour Party, nor do I. Do they have an alternative politics of engagement, beyond the politics of sectarian schism ? Of course, we can all join more general political campaigns, whether we are in or out of the Labour Party.

[Strategist]

I am glad there are still people like you in Labour, Dugsie.  But I personally am glad I'm out.  I found an old wallet yesterday and was surprised to find an old party card showing that I had stuck it out as a member as late as the end of 2004.  But when I got out it felt like being freed from an enormous burden.  The lack of a genuinely serious effort to get rid of Blair in 2003 on the grounds of the paramount war crime means that the party itself bears collective guilt, in my opinion.

The case for socialists being outside the party is electoral triangulation.  New Labour only tacks left when it fears loss of votes to its left.  Respect had the potential to put the wind up Labour - if you don't believe that, you can't have seen the immense effort the London party put in to try to retain Bethnal Green & Bow in 2005.  Lefties within Labour need lefties outside Labour to help hem make the case that being too right wing can lead to loss of elections.

[Dugsie]

Perhaps, but Respect is just the latest example of the politics of schism, or is it ?

It exemplifies two types of schism in one split. One based on the politics of personality, like the SSP split, the other based on the politics of frontism. Will the Left never learn.

I have left the Labour Party myself, twice. The first time in the sixties. I was out for a couple of years or so. The second time during the Blair era, for about the same. I'll wait until after the battle for the Labour Party takes place in opposition, before leaving again.

[Strategist]

Dugsie, I'm not defending Respect or the Respect split, which I thought was the most extraordinarily self-indulgent disgrace.

But I stand by my point that lefties like yourself, being a minority inside New Labour, need parties attacking your New Labour androids (sorry, candidates) from the left at election time, so that those androids (sorry, candidates), perceiving the risk of loss of votes to their left, will triangulate back towards the left to try & head that off.  Somewhere at the margin some good may result from this.

By contrast, lefties within Labour successfully silencing/neutralising the electoral efforts of lefties outside Labour will only succeed in making the politics of their own New Labour androids (sorry, candidates) more right wing - if they feel their rear is secure (they can take the left/working class core vote for granted) they will focus on continually tacking to the right banging on about crime & immigration etc to try to win over the "mainstream" swing voters. 

Post-Respect split, it's a moot point who the leading left electoral challenge to New Labour is.  By a process of elimination (self-elimination in the case of Respect) I guess for the 2008 London elections it has to be the Greens - and I expect that will hold for the 2009 General Election also.  I'd be interested in others views on this - there aren't enough of us progressive voters about for us to be split too much.   

[fonda]

Personally i will be voting for Brian Haw for London Mayor in the upcoming election.
The Respect split and other splits before have taught us there is no suuch thing as a honest politician. Only a non politician can sort this mess out.

Livingstone is a totally discredited as he has shown himself to be another Blairite convert.

[Strategist]

Fonda, ow do you like Sian Berry? She's pretty honest.

[Dugsie]

Have a look at the latest debate on Compass, it is relevant to this discussion.

[treborc]

I was writing a reply on Compass and then thought why bother, I just watched a women from Ghana who has cancer being removed from Hospital to be deported, she will die now. I have three people around me who are illegal they are fit men who can work if allowed, yet they sit at home in a council house, and do nothing.

We have people who have sit in jails for years and Labour will now soon allow them to stay here, yet a lady who is dying must leave.

I am sorry to me Labour is dead it is so dead it just does not know it yet.

[Dugsie]

We have a FPTP electoral system. We can campaign for electoral reform, but New Labour and the Tories will continue to block it. Neoliberals dominate inside and outside the Labour Party. Given the ubiquitous advertising industry, we live in a society which only has a weak and constrained democracy. Opportunities for change are limited. We have to use all of those available, including opposing New Labour inside the Labour Party. We can't just bequeath the Labour Party to the political right.

[Johnnywas]

Dugsie

The left, by I which the majority of left wing activists,   have two urgent tasks

 - to persuade the public that it has strong arguments for radical reform and to provide space for discussion. as it happens I am not sure that the left has created popular support for continuing improvement in public funded from tax, for responding to climate change, for constututional reform for a greater international role etc       

- to build greater consensus o the left about policies (europe, globalisation, choice etc)


to some extent both these projects can proceed with or without a Labour government

obviously I would prefer that we were able to refresh labours policies and mandate while they were in power

but unfortunately the electorate seems to weary of governments of all shades and  the labour party seems more inward looking while in office

 

[treborc]

Inward looking, I'd say cockeyed myself

[Dugsie]

Inward looking, I'd say cockeyed myself

Cockeyed it is not. Prone to mistakes, particularly under Brown ? Perhaps. However, New Labour has a clear coherent neoliberal, anti-socialist policy. Make no mistake about that.

The bulk of political discussion takes place in the mass media. Biased, of course. For the most part, the political left doesn't have enough profile even to be denounced by the mass media.

I saw George Galloway on TV yesterday doing battle with an American rightist. Say what you like about George, people know that he exists. As far as the electorate are concerned, most of the political left don't exist.

Connect and engage by becoming involved in the battle for the Labour Party, or be forgotten.

[Strategist]

Say what you like about George, people know that he exists. As far as the electorate are concerned, most of the political left don't exist.  Connect and engage by becoming involved in the battle for the Labour Party, or be forgotten.

Eh?

George got kicked out and rightly became much more famous by fighting & defeating pro-war New Labour in Bethnal Green from the outside as Respect. 

[treborc]

Well maybe I think he was more famous for telling Saddam he was one hell of a man, then dressing up like a cat, using the media can be a dangerous thing it you take it to far.

[Dugsie]

Say what you like about George, people know that he exists. As far as the electorate are concerned, most of the political left don't exist.  Connect and engage by becoming involved in the battle for the Labour Party, or be forgotten.

Eh?

George got kicked out and rightly became much more famous by fighting & defeating pro-war New Labour in Bethnal Green from the outside as Respect. 

My general point is that people can't support you unless they know that you exist. The Labour Left was too weak to prevent George's expulsion. Too many on the left outside of the party weren't available to lend their support. Of course we need to behave in a coherent organised way inside the Labour Party and to be non-sectarian. George was too maverick and Militant were too obviously an entryist group. Easy pickings for the Labour Right and New Labour. I'm not advocating either of those, but rather a broad alliance inside the Labour Party against New Labour.

Bethnal Green was too communalist for my liking. Any other examples of working class victories by the extra-Labour Party Left recently ?